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Belgische federale verkiezingen 2019

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Versie door O (overleg | bijdragen) op 1 okt 2016 om 06:03 (https://nl.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Belgische_federale_verkiezingen_2019&diff=cur&oldid=47469227 17 sep 2016 Filipvanlaenen 16 sep 2016)
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De volgende federale verkiezingen in België worden in mei of juni van 2019 gehouden, op dezelfde dag als de Europese verkiezingen van 2019 en de verkiezingen voor de deelstaten, tenzij er vervroegde verkiezingen zouden gehouden worden. Op deze dag worden alle 150 leden van de Kamer van Volksvertegenwoordigers verkozen. België wordt daartoe ingedeeld in elf kieskringen: één per provincie en een kieskring Brussel-Hoofdstad.

Kieskringen

De verkiezingen voor de Kamer van Volksvertegenwoordigers zullen in principe plaatsvinden in dezelfde 11 kieskringen als de vorige verkiezingen:[1]

  • Antwerpen: 24 volksvertegenwoordigers
  • Brussel-Hoofdstad: 15 volksvertegenwoordigers
  • Henegouwen: 18 volksvertegenwoordigers
  • Limburg: 12 volksvertegenwoordigers
  • Luik: 15 volksvertegenwoordigers
  • Luxemburg: 4 volksvertegenwoordigers
  • Namen: 6 volksvertegenwoordigers
  • Oost-Vlaanderen: 20 volksvertegenwoordigers
  • Vlaams-Brabant: 15 volksvertegenwoordigers
  • Waals-Brabant: 5 volksvertegenwoordigers
  • West-Vlaanderen: 16 volksvertegenwoordigers

Peilingen

Peilingen worden in België opgedeeld in de drie gewesten. De resultaten worden daarom in de tabellen hieronder ook opgedeeld per gewest, maar de zetelverdelingen voor de Kamer staan in één tabel.

Vlaanderen

De grafiek en de tabel hieronder tonen de resultaten voor de peilingen uitgevoerd in het Vlaamse Gewest, en de delen van de nationale peilingen uitgevoerd in het Vlaamse Gewest. De verkiezingsuitresultaten werden in de grafiek aangegeven met vierkantjes, peilingesresultaten met sterretjes, terwijl de lijn een vlottende gemiddelde aangeeft over een venster van plus/min drie maanden.

Opinion Polls in Flanders since 25 May 2014
Opinion Polls in Flanders since 25 May 2014
Date(s) conducted Polling firm Newspaper Sample size N-VA CD&V Open
Vld
sp.a Groen Vlaams
Belang
PVDA Others Lead Sjabloon:H:title Sjabloon:H:title Lead
style="background:Sjabloon:New Flemish Alliance/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Christian Democratic and Flemish/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party Differently/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Green!/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Flemish Interest/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Workers' Party (Belgium)/meta/color; width:30px;"|
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated RTBf / La Libre Belgique [2][3] 1,002 25.2% 15.6% 14.0% 14.9% 10.0% 13.1% 5.1% 2.1% 9.6% 54.8% 38.0% 16.8%
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[4] 1,045 24.2% 13.8% 13.2% 15.6% 11.1% 13.9% 4.8% 8.6% 51.2% 40.6% 10.6%
31 March–4 April Dedicated RTBf / La Libre Belgique[5][6] 975 25.6% 18.3% 13.3% 14.4% 10.2% 12.4% 7.3% 57.2% 37.0% 20.2%
22 February–9 March 2016 TNS Media VRT / De Standaard[7] 1,005 27.3% 19.1% 14.1% 14.7% 11.6% 8.1% 4.0% 8.2% 60.5% 34.4% 26.1%
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[8] 1,043 28.5% 16.0% 12.5% 15.2% 10.3% 11.6% 3.7% 12.5% 57.0% 37.1% 19.9%
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated RTBf / La Libre Belgique[9] 990 29.2% 15.0% 12.6% 14.1% 11.6% 11.9% 14.2% 56.8% 37.6% 19.2%
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[10] 1,030 28.8% 17.8% 12.5% 14.5% 9.0% 10.5% 4.1% 11.0% 59.1% 34.0% 25.1%
22 September–2 October 2015 TNS Media VRT / De Standaard[11] 1,019 31.1% 18.4% 14.9% 13.8% 9.9% 7.0% 3.8% 12.7% 64.4% 30.7% 33.7%
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated RTBf / La Libre Belgique[12] 745 27.5% 16.0% 14.4% 16.2% 10.1% 9.7% 3.8% 11.3% 57.9% 36.0% 21.9%
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated RTBf / La Libre Belgique[12] 761 28.1% 17.2% 15.4% 15.6% 10.0% 7.9% 3.3% 10.9% 60.7% 33.5% 27.2%
20 April–3 May 2015 TNS Media VRT / De Standaard 1,032 28.5% 21.2% 16.1% 14.3% 11.6% 5.8% 1.4% 7.3% 65.8% 31.7% 34.1%
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws 963 28.3% 15.8% 14.0% 15.6% 10.7% 8.0% 3.2% 12.5% 58.1% 34.3% 23.8%
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated RTBF / La Libre Belgique[13] 691 28.8% 16.7% 15.4% 16.4% 9.6% 7.4% 3.4% 2.3% 12.1% 60.9% 33.4% 27.5%
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[14] 1,035 30.2% 17.1% 14.9% 14.7% 10.2% 7.6% 3.6% 13.1% 62.2% 32.5% 29.7%
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[14] 1,043 27.8% 18.3% 14.3% 15.7% 10.4% 6.8% 3.8% 9.5% 60.4% 32.9% 27.5%
4–5 December 2014 AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws 794 28% 17% 12% 16% 14% 6% 2% 11% 57% 36% 21%
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated RTBF / La Libre Belgique[13] 773 30.9% 18.2% 13.3% 15.2% 10.2% 5.7% 4.0% 2.5% 12.7% 62.4% 31.1% 31.3%
9–10 October 2014 AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws 801 30% 14% 16% 18% 9% 8% 3% 12% 60% 35% 25%
22 September–3 October 2014 TNS Media De Standaard / VRT 1,023 29.9% 20.0% 14.4% 15.7% 9.8% 6.5% 3.2% 9.9% 64.3% 32.0% 32.3%
5–9 September 2014 Dedicated RTBF / La Libre Belgique[13] 792 31.9% 17.7% 15.4% 15.0% 9.6% 5.5% 3.1% 1.8% 14.2% 65.0% 30.1% 34.9%
July 2014 AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws 880 32.9% 17.7% 15.4% 14.6% 9.0% 5.8% 3.1% 15.2% 66.0% 29.4% 36.6%
June 2014 AQ Rate Het Laatste Nieuws 38.4% 15.5% 13.8% 13.1% 7.8% 5.2% 3.3% 22.9% 67.7% 26.1% 41.6%
25 May 2014 Federal election 32.4% 18.6% 15.5% 14.0% 8.6% 5.8% 2.8% 2.2% 13.9% 66.5% 28.4% 38.1%

Wallonia

The graph and the table below show the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Walloon Region, and for polls conducted nation-wide the part of the results related to the Walloon Region. In the graph, the squares mark the election results, the stars the individual opinion poll results, and the trend line the floating average for the opinion poll results with a window of plus/minus three months.

Opinion Polls in Wallonia since 25 May 2014
Opinion Polls in Wallonia since 25 May 2014
Date(s) conducted Polling firm Newspaper Sample size PS MR cdH Ecolo PTB PP DéFI Others Lead Sjabloon:H:title Sjabloon:H:title Lead
style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Reformist Movement/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Humanist Democratic Centre/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Ecolo/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Workers' Party (Belgium)/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:People's Party (Belgium)/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Fédéralistes Démocrates Francophones/meta/color; width:30px;"|
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated RTBf / La Libre Belgique [2][3] 962 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 25.6% 23.5% 10.5% 9.2% 14.6% 5.3% 3.9% 7.4% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 2.1% 23.5% 69.1% 45.6%
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[4] 1,003 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 25.8% 20.1% 12.0% 10.1% 13.5% 5.5% 3.3% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 5.7% 20.1% 70.2% 50.1%
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated RTBF / La Libre Belgique[5][6] 967 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 26.4% 23.9% 12.8% 11.1% 10.4% 5.5% 2.4% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 2.5% 23.9% 68.6% 44.7%
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[8] 1,034 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 26.7% 23.1% 11.1% 9.2% 8.8% 5.2% 3.4% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 3.6% 23.1% 64.4% 41.3%
3–7 December 2015 Dedicated RTBF / La Libre Belgique[9] 910 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 27.2% 24.7% 13.5% 9.5% 10.3% 5.4% 3.2% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 2.5% 24.7% 69.1% 44.4%
28 September–4 October 2015 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[10] 1,017 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 26.0% 23.3% 13.3% 9.0% 8.5% 4.6% 1.7% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 2.7% 23.3% 63.1% 39.8%
9–14 September 2015 Dedicated RTBf / La Libre Belgique[12] 643 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 29.7% 24.2% 13.5% 9.2% 9.7% 4.1% 2.6% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 3.5% 24.2% 68.8% 44.6%
12–18 May 2015 Dedicated RTBf / La Libre Belgique[12] 680 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 29.7% 25.5% 12.8% 8.9% 9.0% 4.6% 2.9% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 4.2% 25.5% 67.9% 42.4%
20–24 April 2015 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws 952 25.8% style="background:Sjabloon:Reformist Movement/meta/color;color:white;" | 26.1% 13.1% 9.1% 8.5% 5.0% 2.2% style="background:Sjabloon:Reformist Movement/meta/color;color:white;" | 0.3% 26.1% 63.7% 37.6%
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated RTBF / La Libre Belgique[13] 678 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 28.7% 25.2% 14.3% 8.3% 8.3% 3.5% 2.9% 8.8% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 3.5% 25.2% 66.0% 40.8%
23–28 January 2015 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[14] 1,042 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 27.4% 26.0% 13.9% 8.4% 7.3% 4.7% 2.2% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 1.4% 26.0% 63.9% 37.9%
5–11 January 2015 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[14] 1,053 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 30.1% 25.3% 12.6% 7.8% 7.7% 3.5% 2.1% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 4.8% 25.3% 63.8% 38.5%
27 November–1 December 2014 Dedicated RTBF / La Libre Belgique[13] 655 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 30.1% 23.9% 13.4% 8.1% 7.6% 4.9% 2.7% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 6.2% 23.9% 67.7% 43.8%
September 2014 Dedicated RTBF / La Libre Belgique[13] 676 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 31.0% 26.6% 12.7% 8.5% 8.1% 5.0% 1.8% 6.3% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 4.4% 26.6% 67.1% 40.5%
25 May 2014 Federal election style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 32.0% 25.8% 14.0% 8.2% 5.5% 4.5% 2.4% 7.6% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 6.2% 25.8% 66.6% 40.8%

Brussels

The table below shows the results for the opinion polls conducted in the Brussels Region, and for polls conducted nation-wide the part of the results related to the Brussels Region.

Date(s) conducted Polling firm Newspaper Sample size PS MR DéFI Ecolo cdH PTB-PVDA N-VA Open
Vld
sp.a PP CD&V Groen Vlaams
Belang
Others Lead Sjabloon:H:title Sjabloon:H:title Lead
style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Reformist Movement/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Francophone Democratic Federalists/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Ecolo/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Humanist Democratic Centre/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Workers' Party (Belgium)/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:New Flemish Alliance/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party Differently/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:People's Party (Belgium)/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Christian Democratic and Flemish/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Green!/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Flemish Interest/meta/color; width:30px;"|
2–6 September 2016 Dedicated RTBf / La Libre Belgique [2][3] 917 19.8% style="background:Sjabloon:Reformist Movement/meta/color;color:white;" | 20.1% 11.3% 12.9% 6.5% 7.5% 4.2% 2.6% 1.5% 3.0% 1.9% 1.8% 2.4% 4,5% style="background:Sjabloon:Reformist Movement/meta/color;color:white;" | 0.3%
6–12 May 2016 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[4] 505 17.7% style="background:Sjabloon:Reformist Movement/meta/color;color:white;" | 19.7% 10.7% 8.9% 7.7% 7.8% 2.0% style="background:Sjabloon:Reformist Movement/meta/color;color:white;" | 2.0% 28,8% 66.7% 37.9%
31 March–4 April 2016 Dedicated RTBF / La Libre Belgique[5][6] 918 style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 21.1% 20.2% 11.1% 10.2% 8.8% 6.1% 4.0% 2.6% 2.8% 1.9% 1.2% 2.3% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 0.9% 28.7% 63.6% 34.9%
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[8] 537 18.2% style="background:Sjabloon:Reformist Movement/meta/color;color:white;" | 20.7% 9.8% 8.3% 6.8% 7.0% 2.1% 2.7% style="background:Sjabloon:Reformist Movement/meta/color;color:white;" | 2.5%
October 2015 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws
5–9 March 2015 Dedicated RTBF / La Libre Belgique[13] 907
November 2014 Dedicated RTBF / La Libre Belgique[13]
September 2014 Dedicated RTBF / La Libre Belgique[13] style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 23.9% 23.7% 11.9% 11.5% 10.4% 3.7% 2.9% 3.3% 1.4% 1.4% 2.2% 0.9% 1.2% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 0.2% 32.1% 66.3% 34.2%
25 May 2014 Federal election style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 25.6% 21.9% 10.8% 10.5% 9.4% 4.0% 2.6% 2.6% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 5.9% style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color;color:white;" | 3.7% 28.8% 65.2% 36.4%

Seat Projections

The table below shows seat projections for the Belgian Chamber when given by the reporting newspaper or polling firm.

76 seats needed for majority
Date(s) conducted Polling firm Newspaper N-VA CD&V Open
Vld
MR sp.a Groen Vlaams
Belang
PVDA/PTB PS cdH Ecolo PP FDF Others Lead Sjabloon:H:title Sjabloon:H:title Lead
style="background:Sjabloon:New Flemish Alliance/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Christian Democratic and Flemish/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Reformist Movement/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party Differently/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Green!/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Flemish Interest/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Workers' Party (Belgium)/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Socialist Party (francophone Belgium)/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Humanist Democratic Centre/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Ecolo/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:People's Party (Belgium)/meta/color; width:30px;"| style="background:Sjabloon:Francophone Democratic Federalists/meta/color; width:30px;"|
6-12 May 2016 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[4] 24 13 12 15 14 11 12 10 20 8 7 2 2 0 4 64 86 21
15–20 January 2016 Ipsos RTL TVi / Le Soir / VTM / Het Laatste Nieuws[8] 28 14 12 19 14 9 9 6 21 8 7 1 2 0 7 73 77 4
25 May 2014 Federal election 33 18 14 20 13 6 3 2 23 9 6 1 2 0 10 85 65 20

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